Recently, the Republican's Second-in-Command in the House of
Representatives, Eric Cantor was ousted from his seemingly safe position as GOP
candidate for the congressional seat in Richmond, VA. The victor? Not a
Democrat, that's for sure.
David Brat is in fact an almost wholly unknown entity. Yet,
this economics professor's Tea Party conservatism and meagre $300,000 campaign
fund was enough to defeat even Cantor, an experienced Congressman, often seen
as to the right of the GOP himself, and with a reported war chest of over
$5million.
So why did this, in the words of Jamelle Bouie,
"one of the
biggest upsets...ever", occur? Well, a simple reason can be put down
to
the economy, stupid. But it's more
complex than simply the money question. Brat explained himself that although
the loss of free market principles by Washington Republicans was worrisome,
Cantor's support (however small-scale) for the rights of immigrants was far
more so. However, whatever the specific battlegrounds on the Hill may be, this
was a battle fought and lost in Richmond. And it was a battle of conservatism.
Brat's overriding position remains that Cantor simply wasn't
as Conservative as he, and therefore should not represent the GOP in this
upcoming Mid-Term cycle.
As worrying as this might seem, and looking at
Cantor's
record it is worrying, it is not a
surprising. Actually, it's part of a world-wide trend that is quickly becoming
the political story of 2014.
In the recent European Parliament Elections, the Right took
swathes of seats across Western Europe. Most focused on by the British media
was of course our very own UKIP, and the French La Front National, headed by
the charming Ms Le Pen. In Greece, even more troublesome events occurred as the
infamous Golden Dawn party not only won seats, but were seen parading their
virulent Nazism. It's fair to say that the Neo-Nazi movement in Eastern Europe
has been visible in the past decade, but such a pompous display of "
SS
Songs and Anti-Semitism" is still shocking from a party actually winning in elections.
Again, the question must be asked; Why?
Why, in 2014 are these parties gaining popularity? Well,
just as Mr Cantor found out to his distress, the economy is always on the
table. The Greeks know that better than most, as was reflected by the victories
had by anti-austerity parties of all political persuasions. But if the Left
(and far-Left, at that) also won in Greece, surely that means the economy
cannot be the reason to vote Right wing.
Another popular rationalisation of this swing to the right,
is the idea that the public wish to punish their political representatives.
However, that is again hard to believe, at least entirely. If British voters
are currently
leading
towards voting Labour at next year's General Election, and wanted to punish
the current government, surely their protest vote would have been more evenly
spread between Labour and the Greens? Instead, UKIP gained hugely in Europe,
whilst the other parties lost or at least stagnated. At least part of this can
be explained as a protest not solely against the sitting government, but
against the entire 'political class'.
In addition, it seems clear that just as David Brat had the
beating of Eric Cantor, due to an apparent soft line on immigration, Farage, Le
Pen, and from his prison cell, Nikos Michaloliakos, won the hearts of the
European electorate by promising tighter immigration controls. We've seen a
knee-jerk reaction from the major political parties as a result, with even Ed
Milliband calling for tougher controls than previously. All of this, in the
weeks leading up to
Refugee Week, a
celebration of the roles of migrants in our society.
This fear of immigration obviously has dark undertones, and
as Nigel Farage denies all racism we are reminded of the shouts of Golden Dawn,
and even closer to home, the history of the Le Pen family and leadership of La
Front National. The long time leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen was prosecuted under
the Gayssot Act in 1987, the law which makes Holocaust denial a criminal
offence in France, amongst other convictions.
However, this shift towards anti-immigration, and arguably
racist policies, is not limited to Europe or even America. The election of Narendra
Modi to the office of Indian Prime Minister exemplifies the continuity of the
world-wide shift to the Right.
Modi is not only the perfect example of Indian society,
being pulled up by his own boot-straps, from tea-seller to Prime Minister. He
is also leader of the BJP, the political wing of the Hindu Nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. The group which
has been banned three times since Indian independence, once due to the assassination
of Mahatma Gandhi by one of their number.
Most notoriously,
Modi was the premier of the Gujarat Province in 2002. The year of the deadly
anti-Muslim riots, in which both he and the Police were held responsible by some human
rights organisations, and sections of the media. It has even been described as
a pogrom by some.
Of course, Modi's
actions and affiliations do not suggest an anti-immigration tactic on his
behalf, but a parallel can perhaps be found in the fear of groups outside of
the majority, represented by Muslims in Gujarat and immigrants in Europe and
the United States.
Another important factor in the Indian elections was the
economy. As in Europe and the States, the rate of growth is contentious, and
economic policy is scrutinised heavily. Unlike the incumbent party, Modi
promised not subsidy, but conservative, trickle-down economics. Somewhat
amazingly, this policy gained popularity for Modi in many sections of society,
including the Muslim population. Bill Clinton, Narendra Modi, even John Oliver
has posited it, perhaps it truly is
all about the economy.
However, the course of the stagnant economy and concerns
over the movement of people do not necessarily result in a swing to the right.
In fact, criticism over the truthfulness of the European election results as a
barometer for public opinion are absolutely valid. With a turnout of little
over
30%,
it can certainly be argued that UKIP do not actually hold the support they
claim to. Labour will have to make significant advances if they wish to prove
this at the General Election, and as the teachers say,
bums on seats will have to be the carrion call. Surely this will be
echoed across Europe, and throughout congressional districts and states with
Senate seats up for grabs at this year's quickly approaching US Midterms, as
political parties globally attempt to reverse the swing of early 2014.
N.B. On Saturday 21st of June, there will be a
National Demonstration against Austerity in London. Starting at Portland Place
(outside BBC Headquarters) at 1pm, and marching to Parliament Sq to hear
speeches from Russell Brand, Owen Jones and representatives of many Trade
Unions, including Len McCluskey.
